01
Terrain-Informed Forecasting
Exploring how terrain, elevation, exposure, and local environmental structure can influence atmospheric conditions and forecasting decisions.
Forecasting / Experimental
In Development
Experimental Forecasting.
A developing research environment for testing new forecasting approaches, diagnostics, and methods for understanding atmospheric conditions before they become established forecasting applications.
Experimental Forecasting
Testing ideas before they become forecasting systems.
Experimental forecasting provides TARL with a framework for investigating new ways of diagnosing and predicting atmospheric behavior. The emphasis is on experimentation, evaluation, and learning rather than presenting every developing approach as a finished forecasting product.
This work can connect observations, atmospheric research, terrain analysis, instrumentation, diagnostics, and model development to explore how forecasting approaches perform across different environments.
Experimental forecasting is a research and development activity. Methods and guidance presented here may change as testing and evaluation progress.
Areas of Exploration
Exploring forecasting problems where complexity matters.
Experimental forecasting can provide a space to investigate atmospheric problems that require approaches beyond a single conventional forecast framework.
02
Severe Weather Environments
Testing forecasting approaches for environments where convection, instability, wind, moisture, and terrain interactions create additional complexity.
03
Boundary-Layer Processes
Investigating how near-surface atmospheric structure, mixing, stability, and local flow behavior can affect short-term atmospheric prediction.
04
Local Atmospheric Variability
Examining situations where atmospheric conditions can vary substantially across relatively short distances because of terrain or other local influences.
05
Forecast Diagnostics
Developing and testing diagnostic approaches that can help identify important atmospheric patterns, environmental changes, and potential forecast challenges.
06
Experimental Guidance
Evaluating new forecasting concepts and methods before they are considered mature enough for broader forecasting applications.
Research to Forecasting
Forecasting methods developed through observation and evaluation.
TARL's broader research program provides the scientific foundation for experimental forecasting. Observations and analysis can identify atmospheric behavior that can then be investigated through developing forecasting approaches.
01
Observe
Begin with available observations and environmental information to establish the atmospheric state and identify important features.
02
Diagnose
Analyze the environment to determine which atmospheric processes, interactions, and local influences may be important.
03
Experiment
Apply developing forecasting methods, diagnostics, or experimental guidance to investigate how well they represent the evolving environment.
04
Evaluate
Compare experimental forecasts and guidance against observations and documented atmospheric outcomes.
05
Refine
Use the results to identify strengths, limitations, and opportunities for improving the forecasting approach.
Relationship to TAPM
Different roles within the same forecasting program.
Experimental forecasting and TAPM are related components of TARL's developing forecasting program, but they are not the same thing.
TAPM represents the development of a dedicated atmospheric prediction model. Experimental forecasting provides a broader environment for testing forecasting methods, diagnostics, approaches, and research ideas that may eventually contribute to future forecasting capabilities.
Development Status
Experimental Program / In Development
The program is being built alongside TARL's research.
TARL's experimental forecasting capabilities are still under development. As research projects, observations, instrumentation, diagnostics, and modeling capabilities mature, they can provide new opportunities for experimental forecasting work.
Future updates to this page will document developing methods, case studies, experimental guidance, and evaluation results as they become sufficiently established to share.
Experimental Forecasting / Coming Soon
Experimental forecasting is on the way.
As TARL's research, observational systems, and forecasting capabilities develop, this section will become a home for experimental methods, case studies, diagnostics, and future forecasting guidance.